Long-term relationship between climate change and nomadic migration in historical China

We investigated the relationship between a 2000-year history of nomadic migration and climate change in historical China

Qing Pei; David D. Zhang

2014

Scholarcy highlights

  • Climate change and nomadic migration in historical China have been found to be closely related
  • We investigated the relationship between a 2000-year history of nomadic migration and climate change in historical China
  • The nomadic migration in historical China refers to the movements of nomadic people, who were from the steppes of Central Asia, Mongolia, and Eastern Europe and were considered to be barbaric in the past
  • Individual incidents that temporarily distorted the pastoral system and specific cases were not considered in this study. This broad-brush approach, limited in some ways, suited the purpose of this study, which was to determine the association between climate change and nomadic migration in historical China over the long term and on a large spatial scale
  • In contrast to mainly qualitative discussion and archaeological case studies, this study used correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, and Granger causality analysis to quantitatively confirm that climate change has been a significant factor in nomadic migration during the past 2000 years in China
  • Note: # means the instantaneous lag for GCA. △ means the Akaike’s information criterion lag for GCA
  • This long-term causal relationship holds true only for the pastoral system, which directly interacts with the ecosystem

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