The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study

We extend the model to include tourist expenditures

Andrea Bigano; Jacqueline M. Hamilton; Richard S. J. Tol

2012

Scholarcy highlights

  • Climate is an important factor in the destination choice of tourists
  • We present a changed and extended version of the Hamburg Tourism Model
  • Domestic tourism may double in colder countries and fall by 20% in warmer countries
  • For some countries international tourism may treble whereas for others it may cut in half
  • In most places, the impact of climate change is small compared to the impact of population and economic growth
  • If the Maldives loses 78% of its territory to sea level rise, its domestic to total tourism ratio and its international attractiveness index both fall by 78%
  • The quantitative results are sensitive to parameter choices, both for the baseline and the impact of climate change
  • The quantitative results are sensitive to parameter choices, but the qualitative pattern is robust

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