The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis

We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500–1800 in Europe

D. D. Zhang; H. F. Lee; C. Wang; B. Li; Q. Pei; J. Zhang; Y. An


Scholarcy highlights

  • Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises
  • Given that we addressed whether climate change is a credible cause for large-scale societal crisis from the macrohistoric perspective, macrohistoric and aggregate features are privileged over microhisoric and individual ones; general trends are preferred to particular moments or events; and broad distinctions or geographical uniformities take precedence over localized analyses
  • Climate change determined the fate of agrarian societies via the economy
  • We conclude that climate change was the ultimate cause of human crisis in preindustrial societies
  • We identified climate-driven economic downturn as the direct cause of human crisis
  • Using the variables’ response time to cooling, together with natural laws and social theories, we identified a set of causal linkages from climate change to general crisis

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