Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe

We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2–1%

J.-C. Ciscar

2011

Scholarcy highlights

  • Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product
  • Even ambitious mitigation policies will need to be complemented by adaptation strategies to lessen the impact of residual warming
  • Previous studies have shown that the stress imposed by climate change on agriculture will intensify the regional disparities between European countries
  • We investigated the response of the distribution of premium and productivity of crops in Europe to potential climate change induced by increased greenhouse gas forcing
  • We illustrated the feasibility of integrating the relevant scientific disciplines in an “end-to-end” way, providing estimates of physical and socioeconomic impacts on the sectoral and geographical scales relevant to the current debate on adaptation in the EU
  • One key decision concerns the careful selection of climate scenarios, taking into account the data needed by impacts modelers and the desirability of working with state-of-art climate models while being aware of the variability of climate model data for the same underlying socioeconomic scenario
  • There seems to be a need to improve the conceptual framework underlying the multidisciplinary assessment of climate impacts and adaptation, by better integrating the different disciplines in a consistent way, e.g., overcoming the limitations of the standard cost–benefit analysis to include fat-tailed uncertainty

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