Mesothelioma mortality in asbestos workers: Implications for models of carcinogenesis and risk assessment

THERE IS persuasive if inconclusive "natural" occurrence of certain cellular evidence that the extraordinarily sharp accidents that happen at a fairly constant increase with age of many human cancer rate throughout a non-smoker's life being rates is due to the uniform occurrence of increased substantially in smokers from pre-neoplastic changes in individual cells the time the habit is adopted

J Peto

2011

Scholarcy highlights

  • THERE IS persuasive if inconclusive "natural" occurrence of certain cellular evidence that the extraordinarily sharp accidents that happen at a fairly constant increase with age of many human cancer rate throughout a non-smoker's life being rates is due to the uniform occurrence of increased substantially in smokers from pre-neoplastic changes in individual cells the time the habit is adopted
  • Mesothelioma is so rare among those not exposed to asbestos that incidental cases in heavily exposed populations can be neglected, and the intensity of exposure in an industrial setting seems likely to be relatively independent of age at first exposure
  • Mesothelioma rates among English asbestos workers showed no effect of age, but there were too few cases to justify any firm conclusion
  • In the preceding example, where the observed mesothelioma death rate 30 years after first exposure was 2-3 x 10-3 p.a., an exponent of 4 rather than 3-20 would inflate the corresponding predicted lifelong risk to men first exposed at age 20 from
  • Tile, and English factory workers exposed principally to chrysotile, were similar, but the death rate among U.S insulation workers was about half that observed in Implications for models of carcinogenesis these factories, while that among Aus- The role of ageing in human carcinotralian crocidolite miners was twice that of genesis is difficult to study directly, and factory workers, and more 3 times mesothelioma incidence among asbestos that of insulation workers
  • An example of a human cancer for which years, the risk is likely to be roughly incidence is clearly unaffected by ageing proportional to duration, though the is useful, and the approximate effects of longer exposure cannot be prepower-law relationship between meso- dicted without further rather specific thelioma mortality and time since first assuimptions1979)
  • The and the difference in the peritoneal: similarity of the absolute incidence rates pleural mesothelioma ratio between Austin these cohorts following such diverse ralian crocidolite miners and exposures must be largely coincidental crocidolite gas-mask workers in Canada and, in the absence of detailed data on probably reflects differences in fibre duration and level of exposure, any dimension rather than chemical structure

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