## A probabilistic approach for the classification of earthquakes as ‘triggered’ or ‘not triggered’

We introduce a combined statistical and physical approach to quantify the probability that a given earthquake was triggered by a given stress-inducing phenomenon

Luigi Passarelli; Francesco Maccaferri; Eleonora Rivalta; Torsten Dahm; Elias Abebe Boku

2012

#### Scholarcy highlights

• The occurrence time of earthquakes can be anticipated or delayed by external phenomena that induce strain energy changes on the faults
• For a constant shear stressing rate, γ is equal to $$\gamma_0 = 1/\dot\tau$$, which yields R = r: The seismicity rate remains at its constant background value until an external stress perturbation intervenes
• After a step-like stress change, the tectonic stressing rate dominates in controlling the seismicity rate, which experiences a transient until it reaches again steady state
• Setting $${\rm d}S=\dot\tau\,{\rm d}t$$ Eq 19 and integrating:

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